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Stop MitM on the first SSH connection, on any VPS or cloud provider

This little script stops attacks on the first SSH connection to a new VM, even on providers (like Hetzner Cloud) that don't offer a proprietary solution; we only need cloud-init, which is widely supported.

Summary (for experts; read on for a longer explanation): inject a temporary SSH host (private) key via cloud-init, and trust that temporary SSH host key just long enough to generate and retrieve the "real" (long-term) SSH host keys. The script is a simple but hardened implementation of this technique; the comments in the script discuss implementation choices. The technique appears to be new: I haven't found a proper write-up of this, nor of any other provider-independent solution (but I'd welcome a correction).

This technique actually protects the first connection, whereas just answering "yes" when ssh asks "The authenticity of host [...] can't be established" (i.e. Trust On First Use) leaves you open to an attacker rerouting your traffic to a proxy, or to an attacker generously deciding to provide your VM (... for now).

This technique also makes leaks of the cloud-init userdata harmless. Injecting a long-term SSH host (private) key via cloud-init does allow you to authenticate the first connection (by adding the public part of the injected key to ~/.ssh/known_hosts), but leaves valuable (private) key material in the cloud-init userdata, where an attacker can often obtain it from

Security analysis / threat model

Throughout, we trust the (Open)SSH protocol and implementation, and we do not rely on you, the administrator, detecting the attack.

We are secure against a network attacker

We protect

against an attacker

because the attacker never learns any key material at a time when it is still valuable.

To prevent accidental use of the temporary SSH host key, the script keeps it in a temporary directory; the temporary SSH host key is never in ~/.ssh/known_hosts.

Hacking the administrator workstation still doesn't get an attacker the (long-term) SSH host (private) key

We protect

against an attacker

because the (long-term) SSH host (private) key was never on the administrator workstation, and because the attacker does not actually connect to the VM.

(An attacker who does connect to the VM will likely be able to learn the SSH host key, e.g. via ssh root@<VM> cat /etc/ssh/ssh_host_*.)

Hacking the VM and/or provider still doesn't get an attacker the administrator's workstation

We protect

against an attacker

because we assume (Open)SSH is secure.

As an additional safeguard for this scenario, the script does not just write output from the VM to ~/.ssh/known_hosts, but relies on OpenSSH key rotation to place the long-term SSH host keys there, which

Aside: ... but can an attacker really make the network attack work?

It depends. In particular, the attacker likely fails if you actually detect that all your connections are, and always have been, to the wrong machine, and cannot be convinced to enter a password (on the first or on any later connection), and don't configure ssh to forward an agent or X11 connection.

As a simplified non-exhaustive list, with thanks to ssh-mitm,

The attacker may instead/additionally succeed at attacking your workstation if you use any authentication method and forward an X11 connection.