The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

And Canada is taxing you back

What Canada is taxing

What Canada taxes are American exports, the things American workers grow and build. Today the list is steel and almost nothing else. September's includes groceries.

The rates

Every line Canada taxes today is 25%. September adds a 50% tier and puts hundreds of American steel and aluminum lines in it.

Look it up

Every American product on Canada's list, all — of them. Filter it, or search for something specific.

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Method

Every number on this page is measured, with one exception. Nothing here is a forecast or a projection. The exception is What tariffs cost your household, above, which needs an assumption no dataset can supply. It says so at the top of the section and carries a label wherever it appears. Elsewhere, when a question could only be answered by assuming something, we say so and leave the number out.

Six public datasets, all free, all citable:

• Duty actually collected on Canadian goods, and the value it was charged on — U.S. Census Bureau, timeseries/intltrade/imports (CAL_DUT_YR, CON_VAL_YR).
• U.S. exports to Canada by state and commodity — U.S. Census Bureau, exports/statehs.
• U.S. exports to Canada by state and industry — U.S. Census Bureau, exports/statenaics.
• U.S. energy imports from Canada by state — U.S. Census Bureau, imports/statehs, HS 2709/2710/2711/2716.
• Household count — U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-year 2024, table B11001.
• Canada's counter-tariff list — Department of Finance Canada, complete list of U.S. products subject to counter tariffs.

Two tariffs, two payers. Canada's counter-tariffs are paid by Canadian importers and show up in Canadian prices. What they hit on this side is American exporters, the people who make what is on the list. Washington's tariffs on Canadian goods are paid at the American border by American importers, and that is the duty counted in What you have already paid. Two different taxes with two different payers. Do not add them together.

What this page does not tell you, because the data cannot:

• How much of the duty on Canadian goods reaches a shelf price. That is pass-through, and it is a margin decision made firm by firm. The Canada figures above assume nothing about it. They are duty collected at the border. The one modelled number on this page does state a pass-through rate, but for tariffs on all U.S. imports rather than Canada's alone. See below.
• What a tariff will do to any future price, at the pump or anywhere else.
• How many jobs are at risk. Turning export dollars into a job count needs an attribution model we do not have.
• What share of any industry's exports is tariffed. The tariff list is classified by HS and the industry data by NAICS; joining them takes a concordance we do not have, and guessing one would manufacture a number.

Counting tariff lines tells you how wide the list is, not how much money is on it. One line can carry a billion dollars of trade or almost none. That is why the dollar figures come from trade data instead of from the list.